At the start of a new year, we all rush to wish each other a better year – invariably, and even more so, after the terrible year that we’ve been through and that we will remember as the year of the virus.
But what can we expect from 2021? Will it really be the year of redemption and recovery?
By nature, I am an optimist, but this time the situation is delicate and much more complex.
Recovery? Sure! Maybe… But when?
Recovery will happen, there is no doubt about that, as it always does. The world goes on and, therefore, we will recover sooner or later, but what worries me is: when? And above all, what is going to happen in the meantime?
Is it really that unbelievable to think that 2021 will mark the most severe economic and financial collapse since the Great Depression?
Will our economies and our economic circuits finally collapse, thus destroying the backbone of the most important economic fabric of any country, consisting of small and medium-sized enterprises?
Will the banking and financial system, after an overall positive year, actually be called upon to pay the heavy duty of the bankruptcy and disappearance of many companies, with the consequent collapse of the financial markets?
Will the structural issues of the economies of the weakest countries, Italy above all, be able to withstand all of this thanks to the upcoming European financial aid?
We will certainly recover, but before that we will have to fasten our seat belts, because we will be going through tough times, which I hope will stop within the end of this year.
Indeed, we might go through the greatest destruction of well-being that living people have ever endured.
And all this leads me to the final dilemma, to which I cannot give an answer.
Have the governments and the international organizations around the world handled this health emergency well enough?
Did their decisions take into account all the side effects, including but not limited to the economic and financial ones, which I have already mentioned?
Among the many evils that an emergency situation forces us to suffer, have they really chosen the lesser ones?
While I do respect the effort of those who work directly in the field and keep in mind that judging as spectators is much easier than being directly responsible for such actions, I believe, beyond all reasonable doubt, that this situation could have been managed differently, with greater competence, planning, courage and determination. The ruling classes have essentially failed!
Let us hope, then, that they are equipped for the future. Let us hope for the best, but let’s also prepare for the worst. At least for the near future.
